What is .19 of a bathroom?


I’ve had a little more time attempting to teach probability to my students and realized I had been overlooking something obvious in the communication of ideas such as the probability of events or the expectation value of a random variable. Students have a much easier time getting the abstract idea if the examples used for it are already ones they find interesting, and if the examples can avoid confusing interpretations. This is probably about 3,500 years behind the curve in educational discoveries, but at least I got there eventually.

A “random variable”, here, sounds a bit scary, but shouldn’t. It means that the variable, for which x is a popular name, is some quantity which might be any of a collection of possible values. We don’t know for any particular experiment what value it has, at least before the experiment is done, but we know how likely it is to be any of those. For example, the number of bathrooms in a house is going to be one of 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5, up to the limits of tolerance of the zoning committee.

The expectation value of a random variable is kind of the average value of that variable. You find it by taking the sum of each of the possible values of the random variable times the probability of the random variable having that value. This is at least for a discrete random variable, where the imaginable values are, er, discrete: there’s no continuous ranges of possible values. Number of bathrooms is clearly discrete; the number of seconds one spends in the bathroom is, at least in principle, continuous. For a continuous random variable you don’t take the sum, but instead take an integral, which is just a sum that handles the idea of infinitely many possible values quite well.

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